Draft : General equilibrium studies of multilateral trade negotiations : do they really help ?

This paper is about assessments of the Uruguay Round (UR), and lessons from these for the assessment of the next. The paper offers an overview of the CGE models employed or referenced by international organizations at the close of the UR. This is followed by a summary of the results of those models. These results are compared with actual experience since UR implementation began. Some conclusions from this exercise, and recommendations for assessment of the next Round (or if not technically another "round" of negotiations, then for the next sets of multilateral negotiations), are also offered. † This paper has been prepared with support from UNCTAD. Thanks are also due to Doug Nelson. The paper represents my opinions, and is not meant to represent the opinions of any institution with which I have ever been affiliated. "On two occasions I have been asked ... 'Pray Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?' I am not able rightly to apprehend the confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question." Charles Babbage (19c inventor of the first "computing machine")